What is Bayesian belief? (Part 1)
If someone says, “ I believe in science ”, what do you think of this statement? Initially, I found it funny because science is not something we believe, but something we pursue for the understanding of the natural world based on evidence, mainly through observation, right? But I am starting to wonder, if what I am trying to understand is based on evidence, don’t I need enough evidence to convince myself or believe firmly about what I am trying to understand? For example, if you are a prosecutor who needs to convince jurors that the accused is guilty of a crime, you need to bring enough evidence (beyond a reasonable doubt in U.S.) that leads to conviction or strong belief that a charge (indictment) is right. Then, the question is, how much evidence (observation) do I need so that I can confidently say that my initial guess (aka, hypothesis) is turned out to be true or close to the truth?”. Can I quantify the notion of belief based on evidence? By the way, “ I believe in science ” was a
